The
market returns! At the beginning of the
year, our market was on the same trajectory path as 2018 and 2019. Meaning, listings, sales, and pending
transactions were on the same upswing as well as some price appreciation due to
low inventory. March and April took a
dive do to Covid-19. The real estate
community, nationwide, was unable to show homes because of the “shelter in
place” orders and yet some existing sales marched ahead and closed under these
extraordinary circumstances.
In
some instances, houses sold from just the virtual tours online. Despite a worldwide pandemic, people still
have reasons to move. So the real estate
industry was thankfully labeled “essential” and we went back to work with
restrictions of masks, gloves, booties and later on hand sanitizers and
disinfecting guidelines.
March
and April gave way to a May wherein restrictions on many business began to be
lifted. The real estate market has been
gaining speed ever since and as we are returning to a more “normal” way of
life, business is taking off again.
There is pent up demand for housing and sellers are currently less
concerned about buyers entering their homes.
Especially now that all buyers and their agents are required to wear
masks.
Our
local market has always followed the LA and San Francisco real estate market
activity. And Southern California
activity rebounded after its’ worst April on record. Low mortgage rates, and pent up demand are
fueling the upswing. And combined with
that, many are recognizing the need for a larger home so they can continue to
work from home in the future.
Our
“Spring” buyers are now our “Summer” buyers.
I am seeing houses sell that never reach the open market because of the
relationships that agents have with their basket of clients. We are seeing multiple offers on well priced
inventory. But it could be months before
we see the long term affect that the pandemic has had on real estate.
Yes,
these continue to be uncertain times.
The movement to eliminate racial and social injustice is extremely
important, but the violence that has accompanied it leaves people hesitant to
know what to do next. We have come a
long way towards the return of our local real estate market but we need the
world economy to recover as well. Every
market is now subject to worldwide economic, political, social and health
changes.
But
we live in a place that is desired by many.
Rural, spacious, convenient to beaches and big cites, safe (thanks to
our amazing police and sheriff departments), and full of amazing recreational
opportunities. This area will continue
to outpace many other places in California because it is such an attractive
place to live.
Normally,
I have more statistics for your use in this report, but for now, know that the
real estate market (along with every other industry in our country) took a
major dive (why focus on that?) and is
now on a positive upswing. Let’s be
grateful for all we have been given in this blessed place.
This is an update to my newsletter from the end of March. You can watch the attached video or simply read the information here.
I wanted to give you a quick update to amend the Real estate
review that I sent out on March 23.
As of today, April 2, in San Luis Obispo County we are now
allowed to show homes and list properties.
We can actually go back to work but it’s not “business as usual”…..It’s doing our best to
proceed in this business within the new guidelines that we have been given
through the California Association of Realtors.
Basically, before you or any contractors, appraisers or
inspectors enter a home – you will need to sign a form stating that you will be
wearing protective items like a mask, sterile gloves and booties. I will be providing those to my listings and
I expect other agents will as well. You
will also be certifying that you are not currently sick and you don’t to your
knowledge have Coronavirus. Also, only 2
people at one time can walk through a house, no children and you are asked to
limit your time inside to 5 minutes.
However, actually
entering a home at this time is really just meant to supplement a virtual tour
or viewing photos online and driving through a neighborhood.
We are listing houses.
We are showing houses. We are
selling houses and we are closing houses.
But the timing and rules have changed because of the current
pandemic. And, the County of San Luis
Obispo can change their guidelines for us anytime they feel it’s not in the publics
best interest to do this. My
understanding is that in LA and Ventura Counties right now, they cannot show
homes at all.
And everyone has to decide for themselves, both clients and
agents, if they want to move ahead in this process. This is not for everyone.
But I’m ready when you are ready.
Feel free to check in with me if I can help answer any
questions for you.
Let’s all do our best to help get this virus stamped out as
soon as possible so we CAN get back to “Business as Usual”
Real Estate Market
Update North County Real Estate
The real estate world before Covid-19 looked very good. Inventory was low and as we approached
Spring, many sellers were getting ready to list. We had an increased number of buyers shopping
earlier than we normally see, and I believe this was a function of low interest
rates, increased demand for those who want to live in this area, and the desire
for many to jump into a home here before the prices jumped even higher. Our first 2 ½ months of this year, both here
and in the State were very active.
At the end of February this year, single family homes were
on the market for an average of 38 days, and our County had 4.8 months of
inventory available…a sellers market.
The median list price for a North County home was $435,600.
Spanish Style home and pool in Paso Robles
With the strong economic growth we have been experiencing,
low mortgage rates and more millennials entering their peak age for home
buying, we now have more buyers looking for a home than at any time in the past
five years. In fact, January 2020 was
the strongest January for purchase mortgage applications in 11 years!
Last Thursday March 19 we were urged by the Governor to
cease any property showings or face to face meeting with clients.
The California Association of Realtors (CAR) Today is
working with the Governor’s office to have Real Estate classified as an
essential service so we can continue to show houses and list properties.
It’s likely too soon to issue any real statistics to show
you what is happening, but with the Shelter in Place order, and the stock
market declines, most of us expect this situation to some degree to negatively
affect our business. But Sellers still
want to sell. And as effective as a
video tour can be, it will never replace walking through a house in
person. And Buyers, who see amazing
interest rates under 3%, are even more interested in purchasing a home. However,
with low inventory and an inability to see inside a home we are seeing fewer
sales. While the 10 year Treasury may
continue to drop, an accompanying drop of the 30 year fixed rate mortgage may
not drop in concert with that. The
prediction is that actual rates for the second half of the year will be in the
3.2 to 3.5% range.
Vintage home in Atascadero
Today, lenders are flooded with refinance requests. I know of some companies who are not
accepting any more refis until they have worked through applications on
hand. Let me know if you need a referral
to someone who can help you right now.
On the positive side, we are seeing existing sales still
moving forward, even if the appraisal has not yet occurred. The federal government guidelines have been
loosened to allow appraisers to conduct a “drive by” or external only
appraisals. This will be a huge help to
our industry in the coming weeks.
The title and escrow companies are continuing to close
transactions. One escrow officer told me
today that although the office door is locked, they are allowing in one client
at a time by appointment for signing and notarization of all necessary
documents.
Currently CAR expects negative economic growth in this next
quarter, and state that in fact, we are in the midst of a recession all
ready. The slow down and it’s length is
largely dependent on how long the virus lasts, and if the economy can get a
“re-start” quickly enough.
In the meantime, I came across this website for all things
Corona Virus. Lots of great links for
real and up to date information as well as ideas for keeping you from going
crazy as you “Shelter at Home”. For
instance, there’s a link to “Every Oscar Best Picture Ever”.
How can I best counsel you today? First of all, please know that we are
positioned to bounce back in todays market.
Home on Acreage in Templeton
It may be that as a seller you will need to expect a longer
marketing time as markets readjust. But
know that you have not missed the window of opportunity. Although the homebuying season started early
this year, it is statistically known that homes listed in May generally sell
for more than other times of the year.
And as a buyer, inventory will be low until sellers once
again feel comfortable enough to allow showings. Also, we need to remember that your job
security is tantamount to obtaining a loan. You may be either be job hunting or in a
position where you job security is tenuous.
But remember that our interest rates this year are expected to remain in
the low 3% range.
Will the price of homes change? Does the drop in the value of the stock market
signal an accompanying drop in the prices of homes? During the past recession, when the S&P
dropped 51% between 2007 and 2009, real estate prices dropped 18.6%. So no,
there is not a direct correlation. A
recession does not equal a housing crisis.
This change in our economy is closer to a 9/11 event than to
the downturn from a recession. 9/11
produced fear, anxiety and shock in our markets. But in the three years following the 9/11
crash, homes continued to appreciate at a healthy rate. Think of it more as what happens in any part
of the country that experiences a long, heavy snowstorm. Everything has to pause.
I feel that when the country begins to function normally
again, the real estate market will come roaring back because of pent up
demand. Goldman Sachs predicts a GDP of
-5% in our 2nd quarter, a +3% in the 3rd quarter, and a
+4% GDP in the 4th quarter.
Beyond that, they predict even further strong gains in early 2021.
FHA is enacting an immediate foreclosure and eviction
moratorium for single family homeowners for FHA insured mortgages for the next
60 days. This is a wonderful move by our
government to help alleviate concerns for those homeowners living from paycheck
to paycheck. We didn’t have this help
back in 2008 Also, our homeowners
learned something from the Great Recession and the amount of equity pulled from homes today
is ¼ of what it was at the time of the Great Recession. Most people have learned that it’s a bad idea
to use your home as an ATM, so financially, our country is stronger than it was
15 years ago.
Owning a home is the number one way that households without
inherited wealth, gain wealth.
The road home…Atascadero
Affordability will continue to be a challenge, but the
mortgage rate environment will be really positive. We live in a highly desirable area and the
problems that the large cities have experienced in the past weeks have been
felt here to a much lesser degree.
People will be moving here this year.
We have much to be thankful for!
I am grateful to be in this ever changing, ever challenging
business and to have my clients as my friends.
And I’m also grateful that as far as I know, Covid-19 has not affected
the health of any of you. So stay
healthy, be careful and please let me know if I can answer any real estate
questions for you in the future! My
phone is always ON!
Well, it’s included when you buy a house so for buyers the answer is an easy one. Keep it or replace it. Well, maybe an easy one.
Styles of Sinks
The choices today for kitchen sinks are vast. First, you’ll need to know if you want a 2
tub sink or a single tub or 2 tubs with a garbage disposal area in the
middle. One reason that we have these
choices is because we have dishwashers.
In the “old days” there were no dishwashers so 2 tubs was
essential. One tub was used for the
soapy water to wash while the other was used for clear water to rinse. Then the dishes were stacked on a rack to the
side to dry.
Nowadays, a single sink is very popular for rinsing dishes
going into the dishwasher and for cleaning those large serving pieces, cookie
sheets, and stock pots. You decide.
Materials of Sinks
The next choice is the material. Really, the original sinks (waaay back) were
wood. Then when those didn’t hold up,
they used aluminium or metal tubs. Then
the “tub” was ultimately built into the wood counters with built in
faucets. But the nicest homes had white
porcelain sinks which lasted a long time and didn’t rust.
Today, the choices are porcelain, stainless steel, granite,
composite stone, and other composites with plastics. There are a variety of colors as well. Your choices are great enough that you can
have a marital dispute over them. I’ll
leave that to you!
Real life scenarios
This past week, I visited two homes coming on the market soon in San Luis Obispo County. Both of the owners of the houses asked me what to do about their old kitchen sinks. One home had a large, 2 tub porcelain sink but the edge had been damaged and poorly repaired. They asked if it should be replaced. My answer was no. This was a kitchen that needed to be completely remodeled including new counters and there is no reason to replace a bad sink, put a nice new one in and then have the buyers say they hate the countertops. Let the buyer decide.
The other home I visited had been built in the ’50s and its kitchen badly needs a remodel. But the original kitchen sink was still there. A very unusual design with 2 tubs except that one of the tubs was extra large and deep. My advice to the sellers was to definitely save the sink! A buyer could then come in, have it restored and keep the original, unique part of the home.
Every property is different, every home, every buyer and nowadays, just about every kitchen sink! The choices have never been better!!
2018 North County Real Estate Review and 2019 Real Estate Forecast
This
is a look back into 2018 real estate trends as well as some thoughts as to how
we might see those trends continue or change into 2019.
During
our peak buying season which is June and July in North County, we began to see
buyer resistance to the increasing prices of single family residences in our
area. Perhaps this hesitation was due to
interest rate increases, fear of another recession, or just the continuing
anxiety in our Country in general that we see broadcast on the new each
evening. Whatever the cause of this
change it did not take long for Sellers to adjust their pricing in order to
make things happen. But because of buyer
hesitation, we sold about 100 less homes in 2018 versus 2017, with the average
price increasing about 5% to an average price of $460,000. Inventory is trending upward but choices
still remain low, especially at the lower price points.
More
homes over a million dollars sold in 2018 than ever before in North
County. While this segment of the market
is relatively narrow it illustrates a couple of key points. Number one is that urban refugee buyers from
LA and the Bay Area, see great cost value in our properties and our area. Most of these million dollar plus properties
sell below replacement cost so that is an added attraction to the inbound
buyer. Number two is that a number of
homes with vineyards sold this year as buyers realized the long term affects
the SLO County Water Ordinance would have on future vineyard installations. Many of these sellers with vineyards are also
dealing with the prospect of replanting due to disease, age and varietal
preferences. Sellers adjusted their
expectations and buyers bought.
The
wine grape market is facing an uncertain path this coming year. Some varietals were very soft in pricing at
harvests end and some even went unpicked.
There is still demand to plant on the west side.
Our
rental market took a breather mid-year but that ended quickly. Rents are still strong and so is demand for
multi-family product. Commercial and
industrial space as rentals are in demand and most buildings are finding
tenants. Templeton will see an explosion
of medical/hospitality space in the next decade. Hotels and RV parks have been built and more
are on the way. Tourists come, spend
money and leave. That’s nice.
California
is the sixth largest Country in the world and the Central Coast is one of the
most desirable and dynamic communities in the State. The following are some trends we are seeing
in our office. Significant wealth is
shopping and buying in North County. The
cost of building and securing entitlements continues to rise making buying
existing built properties much more desirable compared to building. Across the Country property taxes are rising
due to government budget shortfalls.
Proposition 13 is an enormous benefit for the real estate investor. Our wine industry is growing and their
ceiling is high. More buyers are
considering real estate as an investment, versus traditional equity
markets. Water is and will continue to
be the number one issue for North County.
People leaving North County for Nevada, Texas and Idaho are being
replaced by urban refugees from the Bay Area and LA.
I
believe North County is the place where we will continue to see an increase in
tourism, and its desirability will grow for those who are looking for a better
place to live. Opportunities in 2019 for
buyers and sellers will happen. Interest
rates are favorable, now that the market has taken some time to adjust. Our local economy is strong. No one has it better than we do!
When you are in the business of selling real estate, it’s sometimes hard to say what’s going on until you have the data to prove what might be just a feeling. And each of us as independent contractors working for a brokerage has a unique look into the marketplace. So when we have a chance as agents to meet and talk about what’s going on today, it is always a great opportunity to learn.
Last week I met with a number of seasoned professionals in my RE/MAX office. We all shared a similar outlook. We are seeing fewer showings on listings, and are writing fewer deals. And today only certain segments of the market seem to be thriving. The homes that are in very good condition and are very well priced can still see multiple offers. That tells us that buyers are still willing to write offers, but are very selective on what they are purchasing. We are also seeing an inventory reduction in large million dollar plus estate and vineyard parcels. We know, therefore, that there is serious capital on the market looking for a worthwhile investment.
What else do we know? We know that the interest rates we have enjoyed in the past few years are going away. The 3 – 4% rate is gone and we are creeping into the 5%+ territory. That’s a Real Estate Downshift. While this may not seem like a huge difference to a buyer, it is enough to cause a market on the edge of affordability to slow down.
With little to no new construction in our area, existing home prices have increased based on lack of supply. And since that increase has far outstripped increasing incomes here, that interest rate change further erodes the affordability of our area.
Higher interest rates and more expensive inventory has increased the time homes are sitting on the market. We now have about a 3 to 4 month supply. That means a Real Estate Downshift that buyers can take a bit more time deciding what to buy, sellers need to negotiate more and have their properties in tip top shape, and instead of listing their home $5000 higher than their neighbor sold for last month, they may need to underprice their home by that amount because there are 2 other properties also for sale on their street.
A downshift from a pure sellers market to a more evenly weighted transaction….I’d say 5th gear to 4th for sure, and possibly even to 3rd gear as we take the turn ahead.
The great news is that sellers are still achieving sold equity returns on their homes when they do decide to sell. Possibly not what they had hoped, but if priced competitively, their home will sell. No one is making any more of them in North County right now.
I’ll have some solid statistics for you at year end.
30 years selling real estate to better serve you! Joanie
This is a look back at North CountyReal Estate in 2017 and some thoughts on the coming year. It’s a privilege to live and work in such a desirable community.
Unit sales for in town homes topped 900 properties for the second year in a row. The average sale price of residential single family homes in North County was $457,000 which reflects a 6% increase over 2016. Homes priced under $500,000 are by far the strongest market in our community. We still have historically low inventory and new home construction is minimal. Consistent demand coupled with lower supply is where we are heading in 2018.
Homes on acreage really jumped in price to an average sale price of $742,000 which reflects a strong 12% year to year increase. These properties had been lagging a bit but pricing is catching up. Atascadero and Templeton homes on acreage led the way. Million dollar homes also got some traction in 2017. The number of million dollar sales jumped up to 54 units from 38 in 2016. There is still a year and a half of inventory in this category but we did move forward. Million dollar homes are still selling for well below replacement value.
Our rental market is still strong with little vacancy. However, there are close to 200 apartment units being built in North County in 2018. Also, we are beginning to see more infill residential construction throughout the area. If lending conditions remain favorable, we should see a significant increase in new construction by 2019.
The Wine Industry continues to drive a hospitality and entertainment industry that is actively accelerating. There are many new hotels and restaurants planned and under construction. Paso Robles is the focal point of most of this economic activity. Wine grape prices are solid and producing vineyard prices are firm. Even though millennials are a quarter of the population these young people consume 42% of the wine product in the U.S.
View of Paso Robles from Daou Vineyards
Commercial real estate has been consistent. Retail is a little spotty with internet sales so strong. Financial industries like banks are growing. Office space is stable. Industrial is still driven by user demand but the Wine Industry is providing demand for storage, crush locations, etc. Multi-family sells quickly if lit is priced right.
Conversations about the real estate bubble have been replaced by the Tax Reform situation. There is always the next ‘woe is me’ current event for the media to blow out of proportion. Tax Reform will likely prove helpful for a majority of the people in our Country, but tough for others. No law has ever or will be passed which is a win for 100% of the people.
We have lived for eight years with little growth and Real Estate has been driven by cheap interest rates. Now the government is trying to replace a transfer of wealth economy into a growth economy. So let’s see what happens. Whatever happens, we will compete.
North County is thriving for many reasons. We have a wealth of natural beauty and ideal weather. Our local government helps our community compete and grow. We have wonderful community leadership and citizen participation. Individuals have invested large sums of money into our Ag and Hospitality Industries. We have a wonderful new Regional
Lovely new destination hotel in Paso Robles
Airport and strong economic activity in our Medical community. All three North County communities continue to improve in liveablity. There are many reasons to see that the North County will continue to thrive
All real estate is local but market predictions are always interesting. The ups and downs of a market are very specific to where in the USA it is located. However, there are national trends that can be seen and used as a guide for what to expect in the real estate market this year.
For instance, we expect to see more homes sold in 2017 than in 2016, with slightly higher interest rates (perhaps up a ½ percentage point), and with a 3 to 4% higher cost than last year. Appreciation last year was about 5 -6%.
Just Listed
As much as we love to see the value of our home increase, we don’t want to see that change year to year too greatly. We have all had our fill of rapid home price increases, and subsequent rapid value decreases. So a gentle uptick is pretty comforting these days when most of us consider our home to be our largest financial asset.
However, we do have inventory woes. Despite increasing home values, many homeowners are not eager to sell. Because of the lack of replacement inventory, the high price of that replacement inventory and the fact that so many homeowners just refinanced their homes and plan to stay put longer, our inventory is very low right now. For instance, in February 2016, there were 961 single family homes (all types) listed in San Luis Obispo County. In February 2017 there were 717 homes listed. That’s big drop in available homes.
More people want to live here. But during the recession only a handful of homes were constructed. The City of Paso Robles once had a moratorium on the number building permits that could be issued each year. Now they are lauding any new construction that is coming online.
When we have more buyers than sellers, the existing inventory sells more quickly and at a higher price. Prices will naturally increase. It’s not real estate agents who drive the market, it is the market that drives the market. And 2017 looks like it will be a driven market.
I was recently searching for an investment property for a client and in Paso Robles, between $300 and $400,000 I only had 10 properties for her to even consider. After reviewing the inventory, there was only one she was interested in viewing. Now we are in a “let’s see what comes up next” mode. In fact, I have 2 or 3 clients in the same boat. We are actively waiting and searching for what they want.
My market predictions say that it will be an interesting market this year. Very often the Spring is the busiest season, but with the afore mentioned statistics, the entire year may be strong to the end.
If you plan to purchase or sell this year, it is best to contact your real estate agent (hopefully me) now. Planning ahead will be your best strategy!
The Salinas River is an amazing resource in North SLO County that many of us who live here do not fully appreciate. The beauty within its banks can be seen year round and the
Mid Summer Beauty
benefits are always available. The ‘upside down’ river that flows out of the Los Padres National Forest near Pozo flows from south to north, and is most often flowing underground. However, most of the year the Salinas River can be seen near the Templeton/Vineyard Bridge where the water table is highest. There are also portions South of the 41 Bridge where it can be seen because there are so many beaver dams holding it back.
I have been hiking and riding in the Salinas riverbed for over 14 years now and have seen many changes and much beauty. When the water is really flowing after heavy rains, the channels and trails will redirect each year. And new life will spring up wherever the water runs. The fish and frogs, the willows and flowers: it changes throughout the year as the water subsides and the heat beats down.
Here is a perfect place to see just how much water we had in the river this year! Take a look!
The Salinas River is home to many coyote, cottontails, jack rabbits, road runners, fox, bobcat, turkey vultures and hawks, snowy egrets, killdeer, and green backed herons. And the plants and flowers are fantastic year round.
You can hike, ride your horse, run your dog and hunt for arrowheads and special rocks as I have seen so many people do. The smells of sage and sun, and the restful shade under a towering oak or sycamore are pleasures that are too often missed by so many in our busy lives.
Pack a lunch and some water. Drive to the parking lot behind Home Depot on Ferrocarril and take a hike. There are plenty of river trails to explore as well as trails installed by the Atascadero Mutual Water Co. to access the wells that the Water Company owns. They welcome you to use their trails respectfully.
Just please don’t leave any trash. Many of us who regularly walk the river pick up the trash that others leave, and the riverbed is so much cleaner now than it was 14 years ago. If you see any trash, just help us out and pick it up. It will make it so much nicer for the next hiker or rider.
It may be called the ‘upside down’ river, but it’s always the ‘right side up’ river to visit!
This real estate report looks back at 2016 North San Luis Obispo County and projects market activity and a 2017 real estate forecast. While the past certainly does not equal the future, we try to provide insights to help you make good decisions regarding real estate.
Residential home sales stayed on par with about 1600 homes sold for 2016 which is similar in number to 2015. The average price of in-town homes reached $396,000 reflecting a 6% increase over 2015. Pending sales going into the New Year are higher than 2015 which I believe reflects a change to a more confident consumer. The inventory for single family homes for sale is up 30% which reverses a trend over the past few years and points toward a more balanced market between buyers and sellers
Going forward, it appears that home sale price increases will stay modest in the 5% range or less. Slow appreciation is healthy. Rising interest rates are expected and will impact sales in a modest way. Sellers are starting to reduce asking prices if their property is sitting. These reductions are happening State-wide. Sellers always get ahead of the market asking prices. These reductions do not mean a drop in value, but reflect pricing more consistent with the market.
For the first time in years, lots and land sales increased 30% year to year. There is more building and asking prices have dropped to a level where buyers see value and opportunity. We think that pricing for land will be strong in 2017. A note of caution still exists for land parcels within the groundwater ordinance overlay.
High-end existing homes, vineyards and wineries all experienced a bump in activity over 2015. Million dollar homes are reasonably priced and certainly appear to be good deals when compared to the strong residential prices. Agricultural buyers are going after already planted vineyards. The water restrictions make existing properties more valuable. More existing wineries will sell in 2017 because building from scratch is difficult for many reasons.
This 2017 Real Estate Forecast is based in part on the booming North County tourism. Our wineries are selling wine at a decent pace. Commercial activity continues to move forward at a steady pace. Atascadero has lagged behind the commercial pace as compared to Paso Robles. Industrial activity is good based on user demand. Home rents are very strong.
North County is an inbound destination for tourists and urban refugees looking to relocate on a permanent or part-time basis. Urban and baby boomer refugees could create a sustained demand for the North County lifestyle we love so much. Some people are leaving the State but we see buyers walk through our doors at RE/MAX all the time. We are a great value. Maybe better than ever.
